Kampala
Sunday
14th January 2024
Somaliland is an acknowledged region within the Somali Federal Republic Government. Situated along the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden, it shares borders with Djibouti to the northwest and Ethiopia to the south and west. Hargeisa serves as both the capital and the largest city. Since 1991, democratically elected administrations have governed the territory, aiming for global recognition as the government representing the Republic of Somaliland. The central government maintains informal connections with certain foreign governments, as evidenced by official delegations visiting Hargeisa.
The Horn of Africa commenced the new year with reports of an agreement that marked a turbulent beginning for diplomatic ties in the region in 2024. On January 1, it was revealed that Ethiopia had entered into a memorandum of understanding with the autonomous Somaliland region, initiating discussions on a potential arrangement involving the exchange of shares in Ethiopian Airlines for access to the Gulf of Aden.
What was agreed upon.
Despite objections from the Somali government and certain regional states, Ethiopia and Somaliland, a breakaway region from Somalia, inked an initial agreement on this Month. This agreement grants Ethiopia access to the Red Sea via the port of Berbera.
In the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa, Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi and Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a memorandum of understanding. Declaring that the agreement is "meant to serve as a framework for the multisectoral partnership between the two sides," Abiy's office celebrated the deal as "historic." The office stated in the statement that "the Memorandum of Understanding shall pave the way to realize Ethiopia's aspiration to secure access to the sea and diversify its access to seaports."
The transitional agreement between the two parties, seeking to replace a legal pact, suggests that Somaliland is prepared to allow Ethiopia to build a naval base in exchange for economic benefits. Somaliland has also indicated that a 20 km stretch of coastal land will be leased to Ethiopian naval forces, a development confirmed by Addis Ababa. In return, Somaliland will benefit from Ethiopian Airlines. However, a critical aspect of this situation is Ethiopia's assertion that it recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state, a move that goes against the position maintained by Somalia for the past three decades, considering Somaliland's declaration of independence.
The specific details of the memorandum of understanding remain unpublished. So far, any insights gleaned stem mainly from a joint press conference held by Ethiopia’s and Somaliland’s two leaders in Addis Ababa and subsequent press releases.
Maritime Access for Ethiopia
Ethiopia's interest in obtaining access to the sea from Somalia, Eritrea, and Djibouti has been a historical and strategic consideration. The desire for maritime access is not a recent development but has been part of Ethiopia's geopolitical interests for several years. The pursuit of sea access is linked to Ethiopia's landlocked geographical position and the potential economic and strategic advantages associated with having a maritime outlet.
In 2018, General Birhanu Jula, the Deputy Chief of Staff of Ethiopia's National Defense Force, emphasized the crucial need to revive the Ethiopian naval force, highlighting the country's position as the largest nation in the region. Later, in April 2019, Admiral General Birhanu Jula, serving as the Chief of Naval Forces of Ethiopia, asserted, "There is no justification for Ethiopia to be without a maritime presence," underscoring the significance of the nation's 100 million population.
Ethiopia has successfully established a well-equipped naval force and initiated the construction of a school dedicated to marine education and training. This institution annually produces 1000 graduates specializing in maritime and navigation studies.
Since the independence of Eritrea in 1992, Ethiopia has once again become a landlocked country. Beyond nationalist nostalgia and the current tensions around the border between the two countries, the Ethiopian concerns regarding the secession of Eritrea are also largely related to the loss of Assab, preventing Ethiopia from this strategic port, as well as any direct access to the Red Sea. Nowadays, several intellectuals and politicians assume that the Ethiopian State has the legitimate right to re-conquer Assab, to break with the territorial isolation of the country.
It was clear that one of the major reasons Ethiopia had resisted the independence of Eritrea was the fact that its access to the Red Sea ports was going to depend on the whims and caprices of a smaller neighbouring state it could not be predicted.
Currently, Ethiopia seems to have abandoned its aspiration in Eritrea as it was projected to be more expensive. And so what, Ethiopia signed with Somaliland of Somalia to have “an exclusive lease on the sea”. The agreement says that it will last 50 years.
Somalia Nullifies the MOU
The Somali government has strongly rejected a memorandum of understanding signed between Ethiopia and the self-declared region of Somaliland and recalled its ambassador.
Following a cabinet meeting in Mogadishu, the Somali government declared the deal "null and void" and "unacceptable."
Somalia’s president signed a bill voiding a preliminary agreement for Somaliland to provide landlocked Ethiopia with port access to Somaliland’s coast, in a largely symbolic move intended to rebuke both parties over a deal that has inflamed tensions across the Horn of Africa.
In a post on X, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said the bill was an “illustration of our commitment to safeguard our unity, sovereignty & territorial integrity as per international law”.
During a press conference, Matthew Miller, the spokesperson for the US State Department, stated that the United States, a substantial aid and security ally of both Somaliland and Somalia, acknowledges Somalia within its 1960 borders, encompassing Somaliland. He urged all involved parties to address their concerns through dialogue.
The UK issued a statement, emphasizing the importance of "full respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity," while advocating for "restraint and dialogue" to address outstanding issues. Additionally, Turkey's foreign ministry spokesperson voiced support for the "unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity" of Somalia.
The African Union joined the United States in appealing for calm in the Horn of Africa after regional tensions soared following a contested deal between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland.
Conclusion
The security situation in the Red Sea is complex due to various factors. Geopolitical tensions among countries like Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, and Djibouti contribute to the region's challenges. Although piracy has decreased, it remains a concern, and the area faces threats from terrorism. Ongoing conflicts, particularly in Yemen, impact maritime routes. Major global powers maintain naval presence for security. Border disputes and environmental issues, such as oil spills and illegal fishing, add to the complexity. Humanitarian challenges, including refugee movements, also affect the region.
Recent developments, such as the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, have the potential to escalate tensions further in the region. While the MOU grants Ethiopia access to the Red Sea via the port of Berbera, the Somali government strongly objects to this agreement, declaring it "null and void" and "unacceptable." This disagreement introduces additional complexities and risks to regional stability. International cooperation becomes even more crucial for addressing these challenges and ensuring stability in the Red Sea.
